China

The once-every-five-years Third Plenary Session of 20th Central Committee of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) always has a potential to become a milestone moment in China’s history.

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Reina en mi espíritu una alegría admirable, muy parecida a las dulces alboradas de la primavera, de que gozo aquí con delicia. Estoy solo, y me felicito de vivir en este país, el más a propósito para almas como la mía, soy tan dichoso, mi querido amigo, me sojuzga de tal modo la idea de reposar, que no me ocupo de mi arte.

Economic slowdown will continue as the authorities are willing to sacrifice short-term growth figures to trade for long-term social equality and carbon neutrality, but it will not turn into either Lehman or Volcker Moment.

We display the recent Evergrande crisis, discuss the possibility of default and the possible reactions by the authorities. We also conclude it will not lead to a systematic risk to the whole economy.

On May 22th, in the third session of NPC, Premier Li Keqiang delivered the Government Work Report. The report not only summarized the achievements of China in 2019 but also made a blueprint of every perspective of economic and social development for 2020.

COVID-19 tends to expand current account surplus while increase capital inflows under capital and financial account. Altogether its impact on China's Balance of Payments is limited.

China's GDP growth dipped to historical low in Q1 amid COVID-19. The sliding growth calls for more policy stimulus. We believe pro-growth measures will help put China’s growth engine back to the right track. The GDP growth rate will steadily climb up to 7% y/y in Q4, concluding 2020 with a full-year growth outturn of 2.2%.