Uruguay

Y, viéndole don Quijote de aquella manera, con muestras de tanta tristeza, le dijo: Sábete, Sancho, que no es un hombre más que otro si no hace más que otro. Todas estas borrascas que nos suceden son.

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En marzo el desempleo en Uruguay alcanzó 10,1%, reflejando el efecto de las medidas implementadas para contener el brote de coronavirus, en un mercado laboral con pobre desempeño. Esperamos que la tasa de desocupación suba hasta 14,2% en este trimestre. ¿Cuáles son los desafíos para el mercado de trabajo pasada la pandemia?

Uruguay will be affected by the combination of an intense, but transitory, negative shock of external demand and a brake on domestic activity resulting from voluntary confinement arranged to avoid massive contagion. In this context, activity will contract by 3.1% in 2020.

Uruguay is focused on elections, with necessary structural reforms taking a back seat.

We maintain our growth forecast for Uruguay at 1.3% in 2019 and we revised it downwards in 2020 to 1.9% (before 2.2%). An environment of lower global growth, in Argentina and Brazil, as well as the lack of definition of the beginning of the third pulp mill construction will determine a moderate growth in the next two years.

Uruguay: growth slows, but investment expected to pick up. Downward revision of growth in Uruguay due to the effect of the drought on the agricultural and livestock sector and hydroelectric generation. Private consumption slows due to slacker pace of increase in real wages.

Uruguay will growth 3.2% this year. There will be the second fastest growing country in the region. We project a current account result of just 0.3% of GDP for 2018. We estimate that the dollar will end this year at $ 29.5 and $ 31.4 at the end of 2018. We have adjusted our estimate of inflation to 6.3% yoy and 7.0% yoy for 2017 and 2018 respectively