Brazil Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

Summary

We forecast GDP to drop 1.5% this year and to expand only 0.5% next year. The long-term potential growth of the Brazilian economy is around 2.2%, lower than previously estimated. The uncertainty about the fiscal adjustment, largely due to the political turmoil, undermines the prospects of a recovery in activity and leaves Brazil on the verge of losing its investment grade.

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