China | Projecting China’s foreign reserves in the aftermath of the August RMB devaluation

Summary

The RMB sharp devaluation in August further put the capital outflow problem to the crest of the wave. We forecast the size of foreign reserve at end-2015 under “benign scenario” and “risky scenario”. We predict that under the “benign” scenario, foreign reserve will decrease to USD 3492.2 bn, and it will be USD 2953.1 bn under the “risky” scenario at end-2015.

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