China | Resilient growth amid policy fine-tuning

Summary

Our monthly GDP model forecast for Q2 GDP increased to 6.6% y/y from its previous projection of 6.4% y/y based on May data. Economic activity indicators appeared to be resilient despite the authorities’ policy fine-tuning on concerns of rising risks. There is no further dip in most activity indicators, except for FAI. Risks to our 2016 GDP growth forecasts remain neutral.

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