Consumption Outlook. First half 2019

Summary

The running out of tailwinds, the smaller increase in financial wealth and consumer financing and the rise in uncertainty will slow down the growth household consumption expenditure to 1.8% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020

Key points

• Key points:
• Private consumption maintained the pace of growth in the first half of the year, but is likely to lose momentum in the future
• New consumer loans are growing at lower rates than those recorded in 2018, which will translate into a more limited expansion of the outstanding balance of consumer credit
• The automobile is the paradigm of the slowdown in household spending. Passenger car sales will fall by between 2% and 4% in 2019, but could pick up slightly in 2020
• Preference to buy a car has fallen since mid-2000, but the profile of the car buyer has barely changed
• Population ageing will impact consumption per capita and credit card utilization. The effect will be heterogeneous by region

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