Global GDP: End-of-year information improves estimates for 2nd half of 2014

Summary

The BBVA GAIN update in December has benefited from incoming information on global economic activity, particularly due to the upward revisions of National Accounts on many large economies (e.g. US third estimate of 3Q14 GDP). As a consequence, our forecast for Q4 has improved to 0.8% QoQ from its previous value of 0.7% in November. The data for Q3 is already complete and also yields a figure of 0.8%, in line with our nowcasts from the recent months but still more positive. In a nutshell, the path of recovery observed in the 2nd half of 2014 has proved to be resilient, though financial tensions, geopolitical events and their impact on soft and hard economic indicators will prove its endurance along the first quarter of 2015.

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