Global GDP: promising figure for 2015Q1 against the backdrop of geopolitical risks and higher financial volatility

Summary

Good news in the February update of our BBVA GAIN: The available set of information on output for the last quarter of 2014 has driven up (albeit modestly) our nowcast for quarterly global growth to 0.8%, and the backcast estimation of the 3Q14 GDP quarterly growth has improved to almost 0.9%, reflecting some revisions of National Accounts data for some countries. Moreover, we have published our first estimate for 2015Q1: Its value around 0.8% is consistent with the fact that protracted growth around (but slightly above) 3% YoY is expected to last, if not gain momentum, along this year. In a nutshell, GDP growth has proven to be resilient to geopolitical tensions and financial uncertaintiy, both at non-disruptive levels until now.

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