Published on Monday, January 12, 2015 | Updated on Monday, January 12, 2015

Introducing a New Early Warning System Indicator (EWSI) of banking crises

Summary

In this paper we develop a new Early Warning System (EWS) of Banking Crises based on a new estimated indicator of the "gap" between the observed private credit ratio and its long-term structural level.

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Authors

Álvaro Ortiz BBVA Research - Head of Analysis with Big Data
Alfonso Ugarte BBVA Research - Principal Economist

Documents and files


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Report (PDF)

WP_EWS SystemVersion Sep2014_i

English - January 12, 2015

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