Mexico | Feb inflation forecast:the base-effect driven temporary rebound will not continue

Summary

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.22% MoM in February (3.50% YoY), with core inflation increasing 0.37% MoM (3.66% YoY).

Key points

• Key points:
• We expect headline inflation to decelerate to a 3.3% annual pace on average in 2Q, with core easing 0.2pp to a 3.5% average
• We expect core inflation to further ease to 3.4% and 3.3% averages in 3Q and 4Q
• Recent events, even if we take into account the recent MXN depreciation, reinforce our view lower rates going forward

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