Mexico | First half of January inflation forecast: base-effect driven temporary rebound

Summary

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.25% HoH in in the first half of January (3.17% YoY), with core coming in at 0.18% HoH (3.70% YoY).

Key points

• Key points:
• If our forecasts prove accurate, headline inflation would increase 0.15pp and core 0.1pp in annual terms from 3.02% and 3.60%, respectively in the second half of December
• Both January and February increases in annual terms are base-effect driven, as headline inflation barely increased in the same months of last year (0.03% MoM on average)

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