Minsk II: fragile, but still an open opportunity before a new deterrence strategy

Summary

The Minsk II agreement signed last week became effective last Sunday thanks to the efforts of European countries. The initial signs are not promising and the deal is still fragile. However, the opportunity window is still open to move to a new equilibrium in which the two big players (Russia and the USA) will extend discussions. If not successful, Minsk II will lead to a new strategy by the US administration with increasing “deterrence” and a potential escalation to a more serious situation.

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