Portugal Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2020

Summary

In Portugal, GDP could fall by about 6.5% in 2020, and the unemployment rate could exceed 10%, although uncertainty is particularly high, especially in relation to the duration of the restrictions imposed and their impact on different sectors. There are many scenarios that are still possible under reasonable assumptions.

Key points

• Key points:
• A global recession is inevitableas a result of the containment measures implemented to curb the spread of the coronavirus. This is a global shock with very clear negative effects and a high degree of uncertainty.
• Although Portuguese GDP growth could reach 4.9% in 2021, the level of activity observed before the crisis is not expected to recover until 2022.The speed of recovery will be limited by the high level of job destruction and exposure to particularly affected sectors.

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