Spain | Quarterly National Accounts 3Q14

Summary

As advanced in the latest edition of our Spain Economic Outlook, the pace of recovery in the Spanish economy stabilised between July and September after four quarters of acceleration. GDP growth for 3Q14 (+0.5% QoQ) is consistent with the BBVA Research scenario, which forecast a rate of 1.3% for 2014 as a whole and 2.0% in 2015. Overall, the published data are positive inasmuch as they show positive growth of all demand components, even beating the central forecasts. Nevertheless, the GDP growth breakdown contains elements that require to be looked with caution, highlighting the sharp rise of imports and, consequently, the contraction of net external demand. Employment grew at the same pace as activity, leading to a stagnation in productivity. This, together with the interannual fall in prices, put the adjustment of unit labour costs on pause.

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