The Macroeconomic Impact of COVID-19

Summary

We are faced with a pandemic whose economic impact will likely cause the biggest drop in global GDP since the end of the Second World War. The uncertainties are enormous.

Key points

• Key points:
• Activity in Spain declined by 30% over the last two weeks of March, affecting 40% of jobs.
• In 2020 GDP could fall by 4.1% if isolation measures are short-lived and there is a rapid V-shaped recovery.
• Alternatively, it would probably fall by 7.9% if the fall were sharper and the recovery more gradual.

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