Published on Wednesday, August 21, 2019 | Updated on Tuesday, September 3, 2019
U.S. Economic Outlook. August 2019
Summary
Baseline growth forecast unchanged, but risks tilted to downside. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 75% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market indicators. Downside risks to inflation moderating.
Key points
- Key points:
- Fed debating if further rate cuts are needed
- Global weakness and policy uncertainty push term premium to record lows
- Weaker demand pressuring oil prices, but geopolitical risks remain
Geographies
- Geography Tags
- Global
Topics
- Topic Tags
- Macroeconomic Analysis
Tags
Documents and files
Authors
BN
Boyd Nash-Stacey