U.S. Oil Prices Outlook. December 2019

Summary

2019 oil prices were in line with our baseline scenario. OPEC is discussing whether to extend its production quota. U.S oil production will expand further, albeit at a slower pace.

Key points

• Key points:
• Our prospects for oil prices in 2020 assume weak demand growth in a well-supplied market
• Currently, tensions in the Middle East and protectionism are the main sources of uncertainty
• Long-term equilibrium prices around $60/b
• Elevated uncertainty around long-term equilibrium: CAPEX, protectionism, transportation infrastructure, alternative energy sources, EM convergence, EVs, climate change, efficiency and technology

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