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Published on Thursday, December 20, 2018

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. December 2018

Summary

The probability of a recession is increasing. Correction in financial markets as participants adjust monetary policy and growth expectations. Treasury yield curve closer to inversion. Increase in corporate spreads highlight downside risks for nonfinancial businesses. Economic fundamentals for households and financial institutions remain solid.

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Authors

Nathaniel Karp
Boyd Nash-Stacey

Documents and files


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Presentation (PDF)

181214_US_RecessionRiskMonitor_Dec18

English - December 20, 2018

Presentation (PDF)

181220_US_RecessionRiskMonitor_Dic18_esp

Spanish - December 20, 2018

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