U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. December 2019

Summary

Probability of recession in 12 months at one-year lows (30%). Financial conditions remain solid after Fed “mid-cycle” adjustment. Strong household finances supporting consumption.

Key points

• Key points:
• Slight pullback in riskier business lending, but tail risks remain
• Key concerns: trade frictions, market liquidity & equity price correction
• Despite industrial recession in advanced economics, global system risks muted

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