U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. June 2019

Summary

Models suggest more than 70% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Shadow banking, business debt and risk appetite represent major red flags. Dovish Fed response has potential to negate downside risks in short-term.

Key points

• Key points:
• Trade tensions weigh on business expectations and market sentiment.
• Economic fundamentals for households and financial institutions remain solid.
• Weak activity and higher financial stress abroad.

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