U.S. | Remarkable transition from longest expansion in modern history to economic malaise

Summary

Today’s advanced report showed that real quarterly GDP growth decreased by 4.8% in 1Q20 on an annualized basis; in line with our forecast of 4.7%. The slowdown will only mark the beginning of the economic deterioration associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, as the drop in 2Q20 will be several times larger.

Key points

• Key points:
• We are maintaining our view that economic activity will contract 4.4% in 2020 before growing 3.4% in 2021
• Without significant improvement in therapeutics, testing and monitoring, or without viable and scalable vaccines, risks will remain skewed to the downside

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