United States Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

Summary

Market volatility, rich equity valuations, inflationary pressures, a jolt of hawkish monetary policy and the length of the current expansion ratcheted up recessionary fears in 3Q18. Based on empirical evidence and our judgement on the potential for imbalances within the US economy, although the probability of recession within the next 12 months is edging up, it remains low

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