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December 17, 2024
En noviembre, los precios al consumo aumentaron un %2,24 intermensual, sin mejoras en la senda de inflación subyacente. A la luz de los datos de noviembre, prevemos que la inflación anual de los precios de consumo se sitúe a finales de año en torno al 45% y descienda hasta el 26,5% en 2025.
May 4, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 0.85% in April, higher than both the consensus and our expectation (0.6%). Though, annual inflation continued to decelerate to 10.94% from 11.86% in March on top of favorable base effects led by energy prices. We expect consumer inflation to be 7.5% at the end of 2020.
April 3, 2020
We expect headline inflation to post a mild 0.07% MoM increase in March (3.37% YoY, down from 3.70% in February), with core increasing 0.27% MoM (3.58% YoY, down from 3.66%).
April 3, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 0.57% in March, higher than both the consensus 0.5% and BBVA Research 0.23%. Annual inflation declined to 11.86% from 12.37% in February, led by favorable base effects. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to experience one digit levels as early as May and end the year at near 7.5%.
March 3, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 0.35% in February, lower than expectations (consensus, 0.69% vs ours, 0.85%). Annual figure still rose to 12.37% on base effects. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020 under the assumptions of a neutral real exchange rate and a food inflation at historically seasonal averages
February 3, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 1.35% (1.0% market vs. 1.5% BBVA Research) in January, leading the annual figure to rise to 12.15% up from 11.84% in December. We expect consumer inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020 under the assumptions of a neutral real exchange rate and a food inflation at historically seasonal averages.
January 3, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 0.74% in December, beating the consensus estimate of 0.4%; led the annual CPI to end 2019 at 11.84%. In absence of shocks, Consumer inflation could stay between 11-12% in 1Q20 before experiencing levels close to 10.5% in 2Q20. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020.
December 4, 2019
Eurozone growth stabilized in 3Q19 thanks to the resilience of domestic demand, while the deterioration of industrial production and exports has halted. Our MICA-BBVA model projects still low growth in 4Q19. Core inflation has stepped in November, but it is early to tell if it will be sustainable.
