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October 22, 2019
China Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2019
The Q3 GDP growth slowed to 6% y/y, the lowest growth rate for the past three decades. The prospect of China’s economy hinges on the development of trade talks with the US at the current stage. The two sides recently tried to pursue a partial agreement first and leave the thorny part of negotiation to the next phases.
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October 7, 2019
The risk of the growing market of leveraged loans
Leveraged loans are granted to entities with considerable amounts of debt, that is, according to the European Central Bank (ECB), those with a debt-to-income ratio before interest and tax of more than four.
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February 19, 2019
Mexico | How do we tackle the Pemex situation?
Recently, especially in the aftermath of Fitch downgrading Pemex's rating from BBB+ to BBB-, there has been nervousness in the markets because Pemex's situation is perceived as a significant risk to the country's macroeconomic stability.
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November 28, 2018
Mexico | Stable debt to GDP ratio in 2019 with a minimum primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP
The stabilization of public debt as a share of GDP is one of the goals that the incoming federal public administration has set out to reach. Keeping the historical balance of PSBR stable around 46.5% of GDP in 2019, ceteris paribus, will be possible if the federal government achieves a minimum primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP.
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September 15, 2017
U.S. | Credit cards: trends, profitability and outlook
Credit card debt continues expanding at a solid pace, while fundamentals remain favorable. Credit cards can be more profitable than other banking operations but also riskier. We expect credit card debt growth to moderate. Competition will intensify, particularly on rewards, incentives and benefits
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May 10, 2016
U.S. | Debt sustainability: time to splurge or time to save
The absence of an identifiable debt sustainability threshold for the U.S. does not safeguard against the possibility of a fiscal crisis unfolding. Persistently low long-term borrowing rates imply that we should borrow to invest in a higher living standard and growth
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May 2, 2016
México | Ley de disciplina financiera de las Entidades Federativas y Municipios (LDFEFM)
La LDFEFM busca ordenar y alinear los instrumentos presupuestarios y financieros de las Entidades Federativas, Municipios y sus organismos para asegurar un manejo sostenible de las finanzas públicas locales. Establece principios generales de disciplina financiera, incluyendo la contratación y registro de deuda, para los gobiernos y organismos subnacionales
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April 21, 2016
China | The quest for a structured approach to deleveraging and SOE reform
In this Watch, we look at the magnitude and sustainability of China's mounting corporate debt, and construct a simple index to measure the likelihood of foreclosures taking place at a regional level.
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