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February 26, 2020
Our results based on the foreign reserve decomposition method and the forecasting practice show that the impact of COVID-19 on China, although very large on Q1 and Q2 economic growth, will be quite limited on China’s Balance of Payments, especially the foreign reserve.
November 28, 2019
The structure of the current Spanish pension scheme is essentially the same as when it was set up at the end of the 1960s. In the 50 years that have gone by since its creation, the only changes it has seen have been to its parameters.
August 15, 2019
Considering the current circumstances of almost zero economic growth, there is no need to aim for a primary surplus similar to the one planned for this year (1% of GDP) in 2020. If properly reported, a smaller primary surplus may be welcomed by the markets.
May 27, 2019
Considerable decrease in the current account deficit in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the same period of the previous year, mainly due to lower deficits in primary income and service balances.
November 28, 2018
The stabilization of public debt as a share of GDP is one of the goals that the incoming federal public administration has set out to reach. Keeping the historical balance of PSBR stable around 46.5% of GDP in 2019, ceteris paribus, will be possible if the federal government achieves a minimum primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP.
October 31, 2018
The conservative Jair Bolsonaro has beaten the left-winger Fernando Haddad in the second round of the presidential elections held last Sunday 28 October. He will therefore be the Brazilian president during the period from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2022.
October 29, 2018
The fact that investors and the European Commission have turned the spotlight on the Italian economy as a result of Italy's presenting a budget with a public deficit target of a seemingly moderate 2.4% of GDP may seem paradoxical if certain differentiating factors that have accompanied this crisis are not properly understood.
April 5, 2018
Last week, the budget balance of Spanish public administrations and the situation of the Social Security accounts at 2017 year-end were released. This very useful information can be used to update the change in various components of the theoretical Pension Revaluation Index (IRP from its Spanish initials) for 2018.
December 1, 2017
The trade balance posted a USD 2.1 billion deficit in October, a much higher number than the consensus expectation of USD 0.9 billion. This trade deficit is mostly explained by the oil trade deficit, which amounted to USD 1.8 billion
June 22, 2017
All the signs are that in the next few days Congress will give its definitive approval to the General State Budget for 2017 following intense debate. The pace and make-up of fiscal consolidation and the fiscal policy options have again been subjected to multiple amendments.
