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November 24, 2021
Economic slowdown will continue as the authorities are willing to sacrifice short-term growth figures to trade for long-term social equality and carbon neutrality, but it will not turn into either Lehman or Volcker Moment.
December 16, 2019
The world became more complex for all in economic terms because of the increase in trade tensions between the great powers. Uncertainties that negatively affected the financial markets generating great volatilities in the stock markets, as well as in the debt and currency markets at a global level.
November 28, 2019
The global slowdown extends into 4Q19, as some incoming figures continue to be weak despite a better tone on trade negotiations and lower brexit risks. Services and domestic demand continue to sustain growth while manufacturing and trade have stabilized in Q3, but confidence data for Q4 have been mixed so far.
August 23, 2019
A possible recession in the US economy has led to a change in the language and direction of the monetary policy of major central banks around the world. The signals emitted by the global economy produced a risk scenario that was reflected in the purchase of safe-haven assets.
March 18, 2019
On the opening day of the NPC, after predictably praising accomplishments in 2018 such as achieving the 6.5% growth target, Premier Li Keqiang hinted at concern and caution in the face of the high level of uncertainty.
January 8, 2019
A few years ago, Reinhart and Rogoff, two renowned academics, wrote about how in every crisis economists, politicians and the rest of the world seek to convince us that this time the imbalances that end up leading to crisis are not really imbalances as such.
October 22, 2018
Spain’s GDP growth remains strong, although we have seen moderation relative to previous years. While it is always tempting to seek a single culprit, this seems to be rather the combined result of various factors. Some of these are temporary, but others are here to stay.
August 8, 2016
The global outlook has improved slightly, especially in emerging Asia. Slowdown of Latam GDP will end in 2016 (-0.9%) in 2016, with a gradual recovery in 2017 (1.8%). Inflation, though still high in South America, continues to abate in most countries. Central banks adopt a more dovish bias, except in Colombia and Mexico.
July 30, 2014
Retail sales expanded a poor 2.3% YoY in June, below both our expectations and those of the market (BBVAe: +5.1% YoY, consensus: +4.8% YoY), with positive contributions from clothing, footwear and electronic items and negative ones from car sales. Manufacturing decreased by 0.7% YoY (BBVAe: +0.9% YoY, consensus: +1.0% YoY), while mining production increased by 1.3% YoY. All in all, we estimate the monthly activity index (Imacec) grew by around 1.9% YoY in June, slightly below our preliminary expected growth range from 2.2% to 2.6% YoY. Finally, if there are no surprises in June’s CPI (BBVAe: 0.18% MoM) the Central Bank should continue with the monetary easing towards a MPR of at least 3.25% in 2014 eop.
