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November 24, 2021
China | Lehman Moment or Volcker Moment?
Economic slowdown will continue as the authorities are willing to sacrifice short-term growth figures to trade for long-term social equality and carbon neutrality, but it will not turn into either Lehman or Volcker Moment.
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November 23, 2021
Test - Colombia | Private consumption continues to lead the recovery
In the third quarter, GDP maintained a good dynamic, growing 13.2% in annual terms and 5.7% compared to the second quarter. Private consumption was at 107% of its pre-pandemic level and public consumption remains strong thanks to spending associated with the vaccination program.
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May 20, 2020
Uruguay Economic Outlook. First half 2020
Uruguay will be affected by the combination of an intense, but transitory, negative shock of external demand and a brake on domestic activity resulting from voluntary confinement arranged to avoid massive contagion. In this context, activity will contract by 3.1% in 2020.
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May 15, 2020
Turkey | A sharp adjustment in March Production
Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.
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April 28, 2020
Colombia Outlook. Second Quarter 2020
Colombian GDP will contract around 3% in 2020, as a result of COVID-19 and oil price reduction. Due to confinement, sectors will reduce output with effects on employment and social indicators. Inflation will moderate driven by a weak demand and despite the exchange rate depreciation. The central bank will reduce rates.
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April 21, 2020
Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2020
The Spanish economy has entered into recession as a result of the extraordinary measures put in place to stop the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. This crisis, however, is expected to be temporary. The activity is expected to grow again from the second half of the year.
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March 20, 2020
Mexico | GDP contraction is inevitable; the decisions made will determine severity
The outbreak of Covid-19 will have a significant negative impact on economies at a global level with generalized shocks on supply and demand, therefore, we revised our GDP growth forecast to -4.5%. Fiscal objectives have to take second place; the most urgent is to underpin health systems and support workers.
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March 18, 2020
Slow Regional Convergence Despite Recovery
Between 2013 and 2018, the disparities in GDP per capita between the Autonomous Communities have barely reduced. This is unusual given that regional convergence in Spain has always appeared to be cyclical in nature.
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March 12, 2020
Spain | With data up to February, activity remains stable
The data observed up to February show that GDP would have grown at a rate close to 0.5% QoQ, consistent with a stabilisation of demand and employment at low levels. However, uncertainty about the magnitude of the negative effects of Covid-19 is increasing, implying a significant downward bias
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