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May 22, 2020
The economic crisis that has accompanied the COVID-19 is markedly different from others that have come before. This has made it difficult to make forecasts, with at least three sources of uncertainty: how much activity is falling, how will economic agents react and how efficient will economic policies be implemented.
February 10, 2020
An analysis of economic variables and through Big Data is made to quantify the effects of sargassum in the tourist activity of Quintana Roo in 2019. The results do not find solid evidence in this regard, either because it was not a relevant factor or by the success of mitigation actions.
October 16, 2019
It has become fairly commonplace to talk about the high uncertainty of the global economic scenario, about growth prospects that, whatever they may be, are generally being revised downward or at risk of default biased in that direction.
May 13, 2019
At BBVA Research we estimate that a tariff increase to 25% could bring Chinese GDP down 0.5 pp from our base scenario, in which China grows by around 6% in 2019. The impact on the other two trading blocks will be less severe, around 0.2 pp in the United States and 0.1 pp in the eurozone.
November 21, 2018
The recovery of growth in Latin America continues to be very uneven. We are simultaneously dealing with the impact of the Argentine exchange rate crisis, the uncertainty generated by the reforms of the new government in Brazil and the mixed news coming out of Mexico. By contrast, the Andean countries are accelerating thanks to the recovery of internal demand.
November 13, 2018
Policy recipe offered by Xi at import expo will help to solve trade disputes and rebalance China's economy. The China International Import Expo started in Shanghai on Nov 5, and the inaugural event, announced more than a year ago, stands in stark contrast to the escalated trade tension between China and the United States.
November 5, 2018
The recovery of growth in Latin America continues to be very uneven. We are witnessing at the same time the impact of the currency crisis in Argentina and uncertainty over how far-reaching the new Brazilian government’s tax and pension reforms will be. On the other hand the Andean countries continue to accelerate, driven by the recovery in domestic demand.
October 29, 2018
The fact that investors and the European Commission have turned the spotlight on the Italian economy as a result of Italy's presenting a budget with a public deficit target of a seemingly moderate 2.4% of GDP may seem paradoxical if certain differentiating factors that have accompanied this crisis are not properly understood.
May 14, 2018
The recent proposal of the Spanish government, to tax the income generated in Spain by the major digital companies, is an effort aligned with that of other European Union neighbours to prevent possible evasion and erosion of the tax base. A laudable objective, and one shared by the whole world’s tax authorities.
