Elections

The Brazilian economy will continue to recover slowly in the coming years. The gradual strengthening of domestic demand and the normalization of food prices will help to drive both inflation and interest rates upwards. The next government will likely take measures to reduce fiscal vulnerability, although it will hardly manage to approve an ambitious social security reform.

We already knew that the Italian elections would prolong the difficult 2017 European electoral cycle well into 2018. Last year’s results, for better or worse, meant a certain return to the political centre ground for all the countries involved, despite the fact that the most extreme political options have gained force.

The General Elections have put Spain's economic woes in general, and employment in particular, at the centre of the political debate. The next administration will have to tackle the challenge of job-creation with policies that are consistent over different time horizons.

Polls show Clinton as the clear frontrunner among the Democrats, while the Republican nominee is unclear. Averaging the GOP candidates’ standings in each predictor, Rubio currently has a slight lead followed by Cruz and Bush. Economic-based models and market-based predictors are projecting a victory for the Democrats.