energy

We expect headline inflation to post a 0.00% HoH change in the first half of May, thereby increasing to 2.5% YoY from 2.2% in the second half of April. We anticipate a 0.09% HoH core inflation increase (3.60% YoY, unchanged from 3.61% in the previous fortnight).

Consumer prices increased by 0.85% in April, higher than both the consensus and our expectation (0.6%). Though, annual inflation continued to decelerate to 10.94% from 11.86% in March on top of favorable base effects led by energy prices. We expect consumer inflation to be 7.5% at the end of 2020.

Hidrocarburos: la producción continuó declinando, pero las mayores inversiones en shale gas debido a los incentivos de precios y acuerdos laborales ofrecidos en Vaca Muerta revertirían la tendencia en el mediano plazo. Electricidad: perspectivas de mayor convergencia entre demanda y oferta con creciente participación de renovables

The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Annual headline inflation surprised on the upside to 9.2% from 8.5% in December. The main drivers behind the surge were food inflation (harsh weather conditions) and higher energy prices, while FX pass-through has showed only minor signs of impact on the core so far.

The OPEC member countries met in Algeria from September 26 to 28. The goal was to lay the foundations for an agreement to reduce oversupply on the market and raise oil prices. The negotiations ended with a consensus to withdraw 750,000 barrels of crude a day from the market, which would place the cartel's total output at 32.5 million barrels a day.

The downward trend experienced after February was interrupted by concerns on high stocks of refined products. Recently, renewed market expectations of an output deal in September have brought prices up again. However, we believe that a production deal has a low probability of success. We expect a gradual increase in prices after 2016, with risks tilted to the downside.

Natural gas is a vehicle towards renewables, but LNG supply shortfall to emerge in next decade. Policies such as Clean Power Plan accelerate growth of wind and solar. Shale still has key role as link between storage and long-term projects.