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December 23, 2019
The paper presents a quasi-historiographical or “narrative” analysis of the most critical developments occurring prior to and through the last nine recessions in light of Minsky’s theory of financial instability.
November 13, 2018
Nonfinancial corporate debt-to-GDP is high, but debt-to-assets and debt-to-earnings remain moderate. Solid earnings, tax cuts and low real interest rates allow corporations to service their debt without problems. However, tighter financial conditions, a slowdown in profit growth and higher risk aversion will lead to higher debt distress and deterioration in credit quality.
