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May 22, 2020
The economic crisis that has accompanied the COVID-19 is markedly different from others that have come before. This has made it difficult to make forecasts, with at least three sources of uncertainty: how much activity is falling, how will economic agents react and how efficient will economic policies be implemented.
April 27, 2020
The recession in 2020 is inevitable. It is highly likely that Spain's GDP will fall by between 6 and 10% in 2020. And a rebound in 2021 will not be sufficient to recover the losses that have occurred during the crisis. To add to an already bleak outlook, risks are on the downside.
April 3, 2020
The 2021 Pre-Criteria guidelines for economic policy emphasizes the need to keep fiscal discipline; we think this should be done from a structural perspective to make it possible to boost public spending alongside a credible fiscal reform proposal that increases tax revenue and comes into effect after the sanitary emergency
March 27, 2020
In this Economic Watch we present different growth scenarios for the Spanish economy in 2020 under diverse assumptions and hypotheses, and evaluate the potential effects of the economic policy measures recently adopted by the Spanish government to mitigate the economic consequences of COVID-19.
March 16, 2020
A batch of record-low negative January-February indicators announced today pointed to a significant slowdown in economic activities in Q1 amid the outbreak of COVID-19 in China.
March 9, 2020
In July 2019, the US officially achieved the largest economic expansion since records began. This growth continued in spite of the obstacles encountered as a result of the trade war with China and the global industrial recession.
March 3, 2020
Since the beginning of the recovery, GDP growth in Spain (2.6% per year) has been one of the highest among the large developed economies and consistently higher than that seen for the EMU as a whole (1.8%), but is this a valid and sustainable point of reference for the coming years?
February 27, 2020
Predictably, Spain closed 2019 with a public deficit that was closer to 2.5% of GDP than to 2%, meaning little change in comparison with 2018. This almost complete lack of improvement means that fiscal consolidation efforts will be carried over to this year.
February 5, 2020
Budget execution data up to Nov-19 anticipate a further structural deterioration of the structural balance during 2019. For 2020-2021, and pending the completion of the new government's budget programme, the recently approved measures maintain the expansionary tone of fiscal policy
January 7, 2020
The global economic outlook deteriorated in 2019, following the downturn already seen in 2018. Between January and October, BBVA Research reduced its global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 by 0.3 percentage points (pp) to 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively — half a point less than the average from 2011 to 2018.
November 18, 2019
The financial markets enter the final stretch of the year with their eyes set firmly on the trade war and Brexit, meaning that the optimism surrounding the favorable resolution of both matters could be the stimulus that the world economy needs to regain momentum.
