GDP growth

In Portugal, GDP could fall by about 6.5% in 2020, and the unemployment rate could exceed 10%, although uncertainty is particularly high, especially in relation to the duration of the restrictions imposed and their impact on different sectors. There are many scenarios that are still possible under reasonable assumptions.

Although an early deterioration in the industrial sector was expected due to the early halting of global value chains, the effect on consumption in March seems to be greater than that shown by the retail sales data to date.

Industrial Production (IP) grew by 8.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, surprising expectations on the upside in December (7% BBVA Research vs. 6.6% market median). Thus, IP growth accelerated to 5.8% yoy in 4Q19 after its yearly contraction of 0.5% in 3Q19. 2019 GDP growth will likely be materialized at above 0.5% yoy.

Recent policy impulses could support the acceleration in the economic activity further. We upgrade our GDP growth to 0.8% and 4% for 2019 & 2020 respectively with a higher support from Domestic Demand.

Turkish Economy grew by 0.9% yoy in 3Q19 (Consensus; 1%), the first positive YoY growth since 3Q18. The GDP grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, signaling some momentum loss comparing 1.2% qoq in 2Q19. We maintain a prudent GDP growth forecast of 0.3% for 2019 with some upside risk and a neutral 3% for 2020.

Turkish Economy contracted by 1.5% in annual terms in 2Q19, better than market expectation but worse than ours (-2% Consensus vs. -1% BBVA Research). In quarterly terms, the economy grew at 1.2%, avoiding the “W” pattern but moderating from 1.6% QoQ in 1Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.

After an unprecedented crisis, Spain has overtaken pre-crisis levels of income per capita due to a favorable combination of external and domestic factors. Although it is difficult to estimate their exact contribution, behind the current economic recovery are the effects of structural reforms, in labor and product markets, the financial system and the public sector.

Turkish Economy contracted by 3.0% yoy in 4Q18, slightly worse than expectations (-2.5% median vs. -2.2% BBVA Research). The economy technically entered into a recession as the QoQ contraction became deeper with -2.4% after -1.6% in 3Q18. We maintain GDP growth forecast at 1% for 2019 as recent impulses and base effects in the 2H19 may balance the poor performance of 1Q19.