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November 12, 2019
We expect ongoing easing in global uncertainties, and policy support to sustain flows into EMs, mainly those implementing ‘sound’ policies and with stable currencies. However, concerns over underlying vulnerabilities and the potential for further bouts of cross asset volatility will restrain a sharp recovery in EM inflows.
May 17, 2019
The dynamics of Global Investment Funds flows in 1Q19 can be characterized by a widening bond-equity divergence, and a visible moderation in inflows to EMs. Looking ahead, we expect EM outflows to continue at a moderate pace until global volatility eases. In a risk scenario, EMs to face more intense and persistent outflows.
February 21, 2019
Global Investment Funds (GIF) flows have been on a roller coaster ride since the start of Q418. Sharp pullback in portfolio flows in late 2018, focus on DMs, but since the start of this year, GIFs inflows recovered particularly to EMs. Looking ahead, EMs would continue to outperform DMs over the short term although hinged on Fed and progress on US-China trade dispute.
December 20, 2018
Our BBVA-GAIN model suggests a slight upturn in growth in 4Q18 (0.8% QoQ). There was a positive rebound in hard data in October, but with signs of moderation looking ahead. However, confidence data declined further by year end, especially in developed countries, due to geopolitical risks and trade tensions. Concerns about further slowing in coming quarters are increasing.
November 6, 2018
As expected, Global investment funds registered net outflows for a 2nd quarter in a row. Withdrawals from EM continued while DM’s outflows were an unwelcomed surprise: those from Europe accelerated to a pace not seen since 2011. According to our baseline scenario (cyclical downturn, monetary policy normalization and volatility), outflows from EM are likely to remain
May 8, 2018
Global Investment Funds still attracted sizable flows in 1Q18 while. Recently, some moderation has already occurred with the bulk of flows retrenchment concentrated in developed markets. The financial outlook is certainly challenging for Emerging Markets as volatility and interest rates “normalize” in a context of high debt levels.
February 23, 2018
Global growth slows slightly in 4Q17, but remains robust. According to our GAIN-model, GDP is projected to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18 after 0.9% in 4Q17. Strong momentum is shared by the three main areas, but confidence may have reached its peak in the Eurozone. Core inflation showed slight upward pressures in advanced economies.
January 26, 2018
In 4Q17, solid net inflows to Global Investment Funds (GIF) continued to decelerate, but only slightly backed by global factors: macro outlook, oil prices and subdued volatility. Inflows to GIF shall continue to cool down as the unwinding of central bank balance sheets starts draining liquidity off the markets. Our baseline scenario assumes a smooth normalization process.
January 19, 2018
Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.
December 21, 2017
Official GDP figures have been revised up in 3Q to 1.02% QoQ, which implies a higher projection for 4Q17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1.04%). Further gains in confidence are not fully reflected in hard data. Global trade recovery continues, but at a slower pace. Global headline inflation accelerated in November driven by volatile components, but core pressures remained subdued.
November 28, 2017
Long-term drivers in a troublesome world: geopolitics are extremely troubling, populism is rising and is here to stay, long term economic facts, protectionism is a still a (high) risk, digitalization and robotics are all around and macro policy framework is changing.
