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May 21, 2020
In recent days, as a result of the publication of the document "The new economic policy in times of the coronavirus", a debate has erupted in the country about whether economic growth should be an objective of economic policy and an adequate measure of development and well-being.
May 5, 2020
Although an early deterioration in the industrial sector was expected due to the early halting of global value chains, the effect on consumption in March seems to be greater than that shown by the retail sales data to date.
April 29, 2020
Today’s advanced report showed that real quarterly GDP growth decreased by 4.8% in 1Q20 on an annualized basis; in line with our forecast of 4.7%. The slowdown will only mark the beginning of the economic deterioration associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, as the drop in 2Q20 will be several times larger.
April 28, 2020
Pandemic behavior forecasts according to statistical models. Sharp decline in economic activity; currently no adequate countercyclical policies. As we predicted, downward pressure on inflation is dominating; Banxico should accelerate rate cuts.
April 22, 2020
Uncertainty persists regarding the duration and real impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico, the economic effects will depend mainly on the contagion and its duration, the economic policy response and the timing and force of the recovery in the US.
January 31, 2020
January is over and the calendar of the Board of the Bank of the Republic begins. In this little more than a month that has passed since December, the members of the Board are going to sit down to discuss a world that closed 2019 with calmer markets but with global growth that stabilized at low levels.
January 24, 2020
Baseline assumes growth of 1.8% in 2020, potential upside emerging. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 30% over the next 24-months. Moderate job growth and steady unemployment for foreseeable future. Inflation close to 2%, downside risks fading.
January 24, 2020
Eurozone growth forecasts are revised slightly upwards due to better incoming data, but we continue to expect some slowdown from 1.2% in 2019 to 0.9% in 2020 before recovering gradually to 1.2% in 2021.
December 12, 2019
GDP growth in Portugal is expected to be slightly higher than estimated a few months ago. Specifically, GDP could reach 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. This upward revision is explained by the historical review of the activity data carried out by the INE and because of the positive trend shown by some components of demand.
December 6, 2019
Baseline assumes growth of 2.3% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 50% over the next 24-months. Moderate job growth and steady unemployment for foreseeable future. Inflation close to 2%, but downside risks remain.
