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May 31, 2019
Incremental tariffs (up to 25%) would likely push the Mexican economy into a recession; inflation risks, an overly hawkish Banxico and fiscal constraints would limit the room for countercyclical fiscal and/or monetary policies.
July 12, 2018
After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.
June 6, 2018
We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries on the same global value chain.
March 21, 2016
Good trade flows rose in real terms in January, which compensated the observed atony from the end of 2015. All in all, the accumulated deficit in the last 12 months of the trade balance was reduced marginally despite a strong improvement in the energy balance.
February 18, 2016
Both real good exports and imports took a step back in December, which did not stop the fourth quarter and the overall value for 2015 from closing the year with a positive balance. All in all, the trade balance's accumulated deficit barely varied in 2015, despite the improvement in the energy balance.
October 22, 2015
Both real exports and imports of goods surprised on the downside in August, partially offseting the positive start of the second quarter. Despite the relief in the energy bill, the trade balance deficit widened that month.
June 18, 2015
The 12-month accumulated trade deficit remained stable in April compared to the previous month (-2,2% GDP). Exports of goods stagnated (-0,1% m/m) after the strong growth registered in February and March. Besides, imports of goods increased again (+0,7% m/m) underpinned by the growth of the internal demand and the strength of exports.
May 20, 2015
The 12-month accumulated trade deficit marginally decreased in March (-2,2% of GDP). Although the growth of exports was moderated (+0,2% QoQ), the figures for February (+1,7% MoM) and March (+3,1% MoM) confirms the sales picked up. In any case, the growth of domestic demand is resulting in increases in imports (+ 2.6% QoQ)
April 8, 2015
Total U.S. trade accounts for nearly 30% of GDP (net importer of goods but a net exporter of services). Nonpetroelum goods deficit has returned to the pre-crisis peak as global imbalances linger, yet we could see a petroleum goods surplus in the near future. Current and pending free trade agreements have the potential to boost global growth and keep imbalances in check
