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July 5, 2024
The automotive sector once again had an outstanding performance among the different sectors of the economy despite the adverse local macroeconomic context that led to a significant increase in commercial debt with its headquarters. We expect 2024 to be a year with mixed results.
February 12, 2024
The automotive sector once again had an outstanding performance among the different sectors of the economy despite the adverse local macroeconomic context that led to a significant increase in commercial debt with its headquarters. We expect 2024 to be a year with mixed results.
November 24, 2021
Economic slowdown will continue as the authorities are willing to sacrifice short-term growth figures to trade for long-term social equality and carbon neutrality, but it will not turn into either Lehman or Volcker Moment.
May 15, 2020
Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.
March 13, 2020
Industrial Production (IP) in January grew by 7.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, lower than both the consensus (8.5%). We maintain our GDP forecast at 4%, with obvious risks on the downside depending on both the magnitude and the duration of the Cvirus shock in the economy and particularly in financial markets.
February 13, 2020
Industrial Production (IP) grew by 8.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, surprising expectations on the upside in December (7% BBVA Research vs. 6.6% market median). Thus, IP growth accelerated to 5.8% yoy in 4Q19 after its yearly contraction of 0.5% in 3Q19. 2019 GDP growth will likely be materialized at above 0.5% yoy.
November 14, 2019
The Industrial Production (IP) increased by 3.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, slightly higher than median market expectation. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for now, but the pace of acceleration puts strong upside risks on our expectation around 1%. Our forecast for 2020 remains neutral at 3%.
July 31, 2019
Last week China’s government announced its GDP figures in the second quarter as well as a batch of activities indicators in June such as industrial production, retail sales and fix-asset investment. These headline figures still look fine.
July 12, 2019
IP declined by 1.3% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in May, slightly better than market expectation (-2%). Hence, the annual contraction in IP (c.a.) decelerated further from -4.7% in 1Q19 to -2.6% in the first two months of 2Q19. In absence of new shocks, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.
May 14, 2019
IP contracted by 2.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in March (-4.4% Consensus & -4.6% BBVA Research). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly contraction of 1.7% in March (96% info) and 1.6% in April (47% info). A prudent policy mix remains key to maintain the recovery trend alive and avoid a “W” pattern.
February 14, 2019
Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the downside by falling 9.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in December (-8.4% BBVA Research vs. -7.5% Consensus). Thus, IP contracted by 7.5% in 4Q18 after its 1.6% growth in 3Q18. We maintain our view that the recovery in economic activity could start as of 2Q19 and bring the whole year GDP growth rate to 1% in 2019.
November 16, 2018
Industrial Production (IP) decreased by 2.7% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, lower than the market expectation ( 1.5% Bloomberg vs -7.5% ours). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 2.2% yoy growth in September and 0.6% annual contraction in October (with 96% and 47% of info including our Retails Sales Indicator, respectively).
