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March 31, 2016
According to the Copom, and in line with our view, the beginning of a monetary easing cycle is not imminent. Even though the monetary authority expects a larger decrease of GDP in 2016 (-3.5%), inflation forecasts were revised up and uncertainty related to the fiscal deterioration, “non-economic” events, inflation dynamics and the global environment were highlighted.
December 23, 2015
The BCB sees 2016 inflation at 6.2%/6.3%, in line with its goal for the period. Moreover, it forecasts 2017 inflation to reach 4.8%/4.9%, which we see as sufficiently close to the 4.5% level it wants to make inflation to converge to. If our view is correct, and if fiscal uncertainty and "non-economic events" allow it, the Selic rate will be left unchanged in January.
September 24, 2015
The 3Q15 Inflation Report revealed that the BCB revised up its inflation forecasts for 2015 and 2016, mainly due to the exchange rate depreciation and a less supportive fiscal policy, and in spite of a more negative view on both external and domestic growth. However, the report suggested that the BCB will likely keep the Selic rate at 14.25% for some time.
June 24, 2015
The 2Q15 Inflation Report revealed that the COPOM expects inflation to close 2015 at 9.0%, decline to 4.8% at the end of 2016 and converge to the 4.5% target only in 2Q17. As its focus is on taking inflation to the target by the end of 2016, its forecasts suggest it will continue tightening monetary policy ahead. We now expect another 50bp hike of the Selic rate in July.
