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October 1, 2024
Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, enabling the Central Bank to expedite rate cuts from the end of the year.
July 12, 2024
Crecimiento de 2,9% este año (2,7% en el estimado anterior), con el apoyo del nuevo retiro de AFP. Recuperación de sectores más afectados en 2023 por las anomalías climatológicas y de sectores no primarios, estos por el avance del gasto privado. Para 2025, expansión del PIB de 2,7%, agotado el impacto de los retiros de AFP.
April 18, 2019
We estimated a Taylor rule for the Central Bank and found that the estimated rate has not diverted from the average observed rate more than one month. We expected that the BCRP would soon begin to raise the rate to a more neutral level. However, there are concerns about global growth which could lead to the current monetary pause being extended for several months.
November 13, 2018
Our call is based on MPC’s hawkish forward guidance and the materialization of some risks, especially a weaker MXN. A lot has changed in the intermeeting period and in our view a hike is warranted. We are not expecting an additional hike in December for now, but will depend on the MXN performance which will most likely be driven by the fiscal budget outcome.
November 9, 2018
The people working on the fiscal budget for next year - which has to be approved before 15 December - are presumably redoing the calculations using new assumptions for the main macroeconomic variables, the outlook for which has changed with the decision to cancel the Texcoco airport project.
October 19, 2018
Last week saw the publication of the minutes of the Banxico Governing Board's latest monetary policy meeting. As we already knew, it was decided to leave the monetary policy rate unchanged at 7.75%, in a split vote in which four members voted in favour of no change and one voted to increase the rate by 25 bp. In my view, the majority decision seems to be the right one.
April 24, 2018
Long-term yields have moved up as the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to cross the 3.0% threshold – a level not seen since January 2014. The climb in long-term yields is backed by an increase in inflation expectations.
December 22, 2017
Financial stability is defined by its ability to facilitate economic growth. Yet in the “new normal” economic environment of prolonged moderate growth, low nominal and real interest rates, an aging population, and rising longevity, the economic environment poses risks to financial stability.
