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January 14, 2020
Industrial Production (IP) increased by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, parallel to the market expectation of 5.5% in November. Thus, IP grew by 4.5% yoy in October-November period. We expect GDP growth in 4Q19 at around 5%, implying 0.8% growth in 2019. Our baseline forecast for 2020 GDP growth remains at 4%.
May 14, 2019
IP contracted by 2.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in March (-4.4% Consensus & -4.6% BBVA Research). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly contraction of 1.7% in March (96% info) and 1.6% in April (47% info). A prudent policy mix remains key to maintain the recovery trend alive and avoid a “W” pattern.
January 14, 2019
IP fell by 6.5% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in November, disappointing the expectations (BBVA: -5.8%, Consensus: -5.4%). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a contraction of 1.6% yoy growth in December (with 32% info), which is still consistent with our 3% 2018 GDP growth estimate but with some downside risks. We maintain our 2019 GDP growth forecast at 1%.
October 16, 2018
The sharp decline in the unadjusted IP (-11%) in August, which is in line with our expectations (BBVA -11.5%), also implies a yearly contraction in industrial production in 3Q18 which will weigh on GDP growth. With 40% of information, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts a 2% yoy growth in September and we expect it to continue to decelerate.
April 13, 2018
The current strength of the world economy is recently being exposed to divergent forces that have intensified global risks. Fiscal stimulus approved in the US will likely spur growth in other areas, but protectionism poses a risk. In this context we maintain our forecasts for global growth unchanged at 3.8% for the period 2018-19, with some adjustments across regions.
