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February 4, 2025
Social Security affiliation declined due to seasonal factors (-242,100), while unemployment increased (38,700). However, after adjusting for seasonality, the number of contributors rose by 35,800, and the unemployed fell by 25,800. The impact of the dana on the labor market appears to have fully reversed.
October 29, 2024
Este estudio examina cómo la inflación en 2021 afectó la desigualdad de la riqueza en España a través de tres canales: el canal tradicional de la riqueza, el canal del ingreso y el canal del consumo relativo. Los canales de riqueza e ingresos tuvieron un impacto mucho mayor que el canal de consumo relativo.
October 22, 2024
Presentation for the Conference on Non-traditional Data, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics hosted by Sveriges Riksbank and jointly organized with the Federal Reserve Board, the Bank of Italy, and the Bank of Canada.
October 16, 2024
We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks using daily consumption, corporate sales and employment series. We find that the economy responds at both short and long lags that are variable in economically significant ways.
December 16, 2022
Industrial production (IP) surprised to the upside and grew 2.5% y/y in October (vs. 0.1% expected). Though, weaker activity in 4Q so far puts slight downward risk on our 2022 GDP forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 3% GDP growth in 2023 with expected solid performance in the first half of the year.
December 15, 2022
Industrial production (IP) surprised to the upside and grew 2.5% y/y in October (vs. 0.1% expected). Though, weaker activity in 4Q so far puts slight downward risk on our 2022 GDP forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 3% GDP growth in 2023 with expected solid performance in the first half of the year.
November 15, 2021
The Board of the Central Bank decided to increase the monetary policy rate from 1,50% to 2,00% in November. In this manner, the Bank gradually reduces the expansive stance of monetary policy given unanchored inflation expectations.
May 5, 2020
Although an early deterioration in the industrial sector was expected due to the early halting of global value chains, the effect on consumption in March seems to be greater than that shown by the retail sales data to date.
April 15, 2020
This publication details the evolution of purchases made with BBVA’s credit and debit cards, as well as those recorded in BBVA's point of sale (POS) terminals. Since March 20th, the fall in weekly card spending has stabilized at around -60% YoY, despite the upturn in food purchases to 65% YoY.
March 3, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 0.35% in February, lower than expectations (consensus, 0.69% vs ours, 0.85%). Annual figure still rose to 12.37% on base effects. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020 under the assumptions of a neutral real exchange rate and a food inflation at historically seasonal averages
January 3, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 0.74% in December, beating the consensus estimate of 0.4%; led the annual CPI to end 2019 at 11.84%. In absence of shocks, Consumer inflation could stay between 11-12% in 1Q20 before experiencing levels close to 10.5% in 2Q20. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020.
