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September 21, 2023
It still points to one more 25bp rate hike this year as the Fed is still not fully confident about inflation and feels it needs to strengthen market’s expectations about the need for “higher for longer” rates.
November 16, 2021
Digitization has boosted productivity but the impact has been heterogeneous by country. Those with more intangible assets exhibit more sustainable growth. Spain should take advantage of the digital impulse and the NGEU funds to increase the capital in intangibles and to improve productivity levels.
May 14, 2020
Banxico cut the policy rate by 50bp to 5.50% but surprisingly continued to strike a hawkish tone. It seems that the central bank is more focused on the exchange rate and capital flows than on inflation and economic activity.
May 12, 2020
Banxico still has a very inappropriate restrictive monetary policy stance. Banxico should cut the policy rate by at least 75bp; the odds of a milder 50bp cut are not low, but we expect Banxico to take a bolder step and cut rates 75bp to 5.25%.
May 11, 2020
COVID-19 is pushing the world economy toward a deep recession that could endure in the long-term. To support the economy, the Chinese authorities have approved various fiscal and monetary policy tools that are suited to the current circumstances.
April 28, 2020
Colombian GDP will contract around 3% in 2020, as a result of COVID-19 and oil price reduction. Due to confinement, sectors will reduce output with effects on employment and social indicators. Inflation will moderate driven by a weak demand and despite the exchange rate depreciation. The central bank will reduce rates.
April 28, 2020
COVID-19 tends to expand current account surplus while increase capital inflows under capital and financial account. Altogether its impact on China's Balance of Payments is limited.
April 27, 2020
The recession in 2020 is inevitable. It is highly likely that Spain's GDP will fall by between 6 and 10% in 2020. And a rebound in 2021 will not be sufficient to recover the losses that have occurred during the crisis. To add to an already bleak outlook, risks are on the downside.
April 24, 2020
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed has announced sweeping conventional and unconventional actions. Based on the uptake in the Fed offerings to date and our expectations for the path economic activity, the Fed’s balance sheet is poised to rapidly increase to around $8Tn, before stabilizing around that level.
