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March 3, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 0.35% in February, lower than expectations (consensus, 0.69% vs ours, 0.85%). Annual figure still rose to 12.37% on base effects. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020 under the assumptions of a neutral real exchange rate and a food inflation at historically seasonal averages
February 3, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 1.35% (1.0% market vs. 1.5% BBVA Research) in January, leading the annual figure to rise to 12.15% up from 11.84% in December. We expect consumer inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020 under the assumptions of a neutral real exchange rate and a food inflation at historically seasonal averages.
November 4, 2019
Consumer prices increased by 2.0% mom in October, in line with median market expectation but slightly higher than ours (2.0%, Bloomberg vs 1.8%, BBVA). Annual inflation decreased further to 8.55% from 9.3% in September on the back of strong favorable base effect . We expect year end annual inflation to materialize as 11.8%.
July 3, 2019
Consumer prices increased by 0.03% in June, lower than consensus but slightly higher than ours (0.2% Bloomberg vs. -0.15% BBVA Research). Supported by the base effects, annual inflation declined to 15.7% from 18.7% in May.
