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    June 19, 2012

    Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models

    This paper proposes two refinements to the single-index dynamic factor model developed by Aruoba and Diebold (AD, 2010) to monitor US economic activity in real time

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    June 14, 2011

    The Euro-Sting revisited: PMI versus ESI to obtain euro area GDP forecasts

    This paper uses an extension of the Euro-Sting single-index dynamic factor model to construct short-term forecasts of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area.

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