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November 24, 2021
Economic slowdown will continue as the authorities are willing to sacrifice short-term growth figures to trade for long-term social equality and carbon neutrality, but it will not turn into either Lehman or Volcker Moment.
May 15, 2020
Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.
December 10, 2019
We estimate that retail sales' growth rate in 2020 will be similar to that of this year. Looking forward, factors such as the demographic boon, higher household purchasing power and the continued growth of online shopping, suggest that retail sales have space to continue growing.
August 16, 2018
July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-growth fiscal stimulus are expected in coming months.
November 8, 2017
Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecast but with risks that could be on the upside.
October 9, 2017
In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).
August 8, 2017
Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are on the upside for our 5% growth estimate for 2017.
December 9, 2016
The industrial production (IP) grew by 2% (WDA YoY) in October in line with our forecasts (2%) but slightly above the market call (1.5%). After contracting by 3.2% in the 3Q, IP’s return to growth, although slightly, confirming our expectations of a still modest recovery in 4Q.
April 27, 2016
Once corrected for the stationary variations of each month, retail sales grew in March by 0.5% in respect to February, which was two percentage points more than expected, boosted by the sales in durable goods sales. The rise in sales was slowed by up to 0,8% in the first quarter and anticipates a lower level of dynamism in private consumption.
April 13, 2016
Retail sales declined 0.3% MoM, while core (ex-auto, ex-gas) sales increased 0.1% MoM. Declines were limited to autos, clothing, restaurants, and nonstore retailers. Job gains should help consumer spending improve going forward
October 29, 2015
After seasonal adjustments, retail sales increased in September for third month in a row favoured by semi-durable goods consumption. In 3Q as a whole, the turnover of this sector grew by 1%, in line with the previous quarter.
