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December 16, 2019

Emerging resistance

Emerging assets have successfully managed to overcome a turbulent year, marked by increased protectionism and fears of a sharp slowdown in the world economy.

December 11, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. December 2019

Probability of recession in 12 months at one-year lows (30%). Financial conditions remain solid after Fed “mid-cycle” adjustment. Strong household finances supporting consumption.

November 25, 2019

Honor Your Debts

The publication of world debt data, compiled by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) from various sources, estimates that debt increased again in the second quarter of 2019, reaching 320% of GDP worldwide.

August 30, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. August 2019

Models suggest 70% probability of recession within 24 months. Increased weakness in global growth. Policy uncertainty whipsawing with trade tensions. At times, key financial markets showing signs of panic-like conditions.

June 12, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. June 2019

Models suggest more than 70% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Shadow banking, business debt and risk appetite represent major red flags. Dovish Fed response has potential to negate downside risks in short-term.