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November 19, 2024
A few days ago, Bank of Spain released its Financial Stability Report, one of its top publications. Coincidentally, this report came out on the same day Americans elected their new president.
July 5, 2024
Forest-based carbon markets offer significant opportunities for developing countries but require robust institutional frameworks, effective governance, and comprehensive policies to maximize benefits and mitigate risks.
May 22, 2020
The economic crisis that has accompanied the COVID-19 is markedly different from others that have come before. This has made it difficult to make forecasts, with at least three sources of uncertainty: how much activity is falling, how will economic agents react and how efficient will economic policies be implemented.
January 23, 2020
This report presents an analysis of those global shocks, mostly of low probability, which may have a severe impact on the economy. Short-term risks have diminished on the back of easing trade tensions and interest rate cuts, but concerns on structural issues remain high (de-globalization and climate change).
August 26, 2019
Economic data and news this summer in Europe are disappointing; especially for the signs of vulnerability of the more open economies following the slight fall in production in Germany and the fading expectations that the main risks would diminish in the second half of the year.
July 31, 2019
Last week China’s government announced its GDP figures in the second quarter as well as a batch of activities indicators in June such as industrial production, retail sales and fix-asset investment. These headline figures still look fine.
July 24, 2019
This report presents an analysis of those global shocks, most of low probability, which may have severe effects on the economy. The balance of risks continues to be tilted to the downside due to trade tensions (impact on China) and increasing probability of recession in the US.
September 27, 2018
Highly predictive financial and economic factors suggest recession risk remains low. However, these indicators are trending towards pre-recession peaks, implying a recession could happen around 2020.
September 24, 2018
This report analyzes the main global economic risk events that could generate a sizable deviation from our baseline scenario. Among them, a full-on trade war, US recession, Fed exit strategy and disorderly deleveraging in China stand out. Although these are usually events of low probability, their feasibility and adverse effects may be large enough to require monitoring.
May 8, 2018
On the backdrop of a solid growth in Q1, the China Vulnerability Sentiment Index broadly remained stable driven by SOE and Shadow banking Vunerability index, despite the new emerging risk of Sino-US trade tensions. However, Housing Bubble and Exchange Rate Vulnerability index deteriorated as property prices remained resilient as well as RMB's recent appreciation.
November 28, 2017
Long-term drivers in a troublesome world: geopolitics are extremely troubling, populism is rising and is here to stay, long term economic facts, protectionism is a still a (high) risk, digitalization and robotics are all around and macro policy framework is changing.
