Pension

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The Central Bank will most likely hike again in December, but not at a faster pace; the probability that the hiking cycle continues in 1Q22 has increased .

The diagnosis of the system's current problems is well known. Since the start of the 2008 financial crisis, pension spending has increased by 4% on average annually, whilst earnings have stagnated—or even decreased—as a result of a 17% fall in employment.

The Spanish pension system is perfectly workable and sustainable, provided that it adapts to ongoing economic, social and demographic changes in Spanish society.

The negotiation of the Spanish National Budget has restored the updating of pensions with the inflation for 2018 and 2019 and has delayed the entry into force of the Sustainability Factor (FS from its Spanish initials) until 2023. Although it would be wise to be prudent and wait for the recommendations of the Toledo Pact.

Last week, the budget balance of Spanish public administrations and the situation of the Social Security accounts at 2017 year-end were released. This very useful information can be used to update the change in various components of the theoretical Pension Revaluation Index (IRP from its Spanish initials) for 2018.

In the last few weeks, the debate on private savings as an instrument to supplement public pensions has again intensified. Although this has always been a topic for discussion and analysis, the recent cause was the royal decree that will enable the amount saved in pension plans to be redeemed after 10 years.

The public pension system is a fundamental pillar of the welfare state. And for it to continue being so, it is necessary to modernise it and adapt it to the changes being undergone by Spanish society. Fortunately more and more people are reaching retirement age and are doing so with a longer life expectancy.