Argentina | 2025 inflation was the lowest in 8 years

Summary

Inflation in Argentina closed 2025 at 31.5% year-on-year, the lowest level since 2017, driven by a general slowdown despite a rebound in the second half. Regulated prices and services led the increases, while the government prioritizes rebuilding reserves by adjusting the exchange rate scheme.

Key points

• Key points:
• December inflation stood at 2.8% monthly, exceeding expectations, due to the correction of regulated prices, the 22% rise in the official exchange rate during the second half of the year, and the increase in meat prices.
• The sectors with the highest annual increases were Education at 52.3%, Restaurants and Hotels at 42.2%, and Housing, water, electricity, and gas at 41.6%, the latter affected by the reduction of subsidies.
• Core inflation reached 3.0% monthly in December, closing the year at 33% year-on-year, while seasonal prices grew only 17% annually after registering a 0.6% rise in the last month.
• Inflation of 2.3% monthly is projected for January 2026 due to announced increases in prepaid medicine, transport, and energy tariffs, along with the inertia from the last months of 2025.
• The annual inflation projection for 2026 was raised to 20%, the lowest value since 2009, assuming that fiscal consistency and a restrictive monetary policy are maintained.

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