Brazil | A more negative outlook

Summary

Last week's downgrade to high-yield by S&P was one of the symptoms of the ongoing economic deterioration, which will likely continue ahead. After reviewing our prospects for Brazil, we now expect GDP to drop 2.5% in 2015 and 0.5% in 2016. A weaker exchange rate and a lighter fiscal adjustment should maintain inflation under pressure and prevent SELIC cuts until 2Q16.

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